24th December, 2010, served a memorable day for South Africa as the Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi informed, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation in a telephone conversation with South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, SA, that the country had been invited to join next summit for the BRIC heads of State in April, 2011, Beijing, China. It is anticipated that the President of the Republic of China will officially invite South Africa’s president Jacob Zuma to join the BRIC states.
Evidently this discussion signals that the BRIC states intend on strengthening their alliances with South Africa. A stronger sign of the global shift in power by these actors to the South: as the African economies keep arising.
When it comes to strengthening the diplomatic relations, this is an excellent move that should have great benefits for both sides. But what does it mean for South Africa in terms of economic weight? Let’s look at the numbers.
Populations:
1. Brazil – 192 million
2. India – 1.18billion
3. China – 1.31 billion
4. Russia – 142 million
5. South Africa - 49 million
From the population figures above, it’s evident that there is a large gap between the BRIC states and South Africa. These BRIC economies have managed to expand regionally and of course internally, due to their large population which has provided a supply of human labour force in those countries and globally.
Let’s look at the estimated GDP’s of these countries:
1. Brazil – 4.4%
2. India – 8.4%
3. China – 8.7%
4. Russia – 4.2%
5. South Africa - 6.5%
Sub-Sahara’s is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2011, compared to global growth of 4.5%.
From the above population and GDP numbers, the characteristics of the BRIC states include:
o Large populations and growing middle classes.
o Drive prices of both soft and hard commodities, (energy, agriculture, oil, gas, etc)
o Strong players in global politics and economics, especially China. This is inclusive of multilateral and bilateral interactions with various states globally.
o Technological readiness and capacity for innovation.
o Market size: that constantly affects the global demand and supply of goods and services.
o Economic incentives for foreign investors
o Reforms in various sectors such as agriculture thus encouraging more labor for economic development.
These are some of the factors that have increased their globally competiveness influencing economic shifts from the developed states to the emerging economies.
But these does not mean that everything is smooth and flowing in the BRIC land as trade restrictions have been well noted, with China leading taking the cup for leading in this role.
The important question being: Is joining the BRIC forum an ambitious move by South Africa? Or maybe the question should be: will it create a pathway for it to become BRIC - Sub Saharan Africa? After all, this has more economic weight for both groups.
For South Africa joining the BRIC will signify its increasing recognition as a global player as it currently makes it voice heard at the United Nations Security Council and other global forums.
With the shift in dynamics, and more states focusing on Africa as a trading partner, South Africa joining the BRIC club should create a position to facilitate growth in parallel trade movements from the four states to the continent.
South Africa needs to play a weighty role that will have positive impacts on it and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. This is the opportunity to facilitate more corporates to bring their investments into the continent; exchange in labour forces, growth in trade and investment for the countries.
But let’s wait and see, may this not be a diplomatic dance, but a balanced economic affair for South Africa and the rest of Sub-Sahara.
